we estimate a CV BEV of s84bn and a fuel cell CV TAM of $29bn by 2030. Class Whille we see no single tipping polnt glven a wide varety of vehicles and use cas trucks have a wide range of use cases, meaning here s n o ine tipping point to amative propusion n e V makes Insead we expet metrication to take place at different points n me based on pure TCO etoomcs-with the possibiity that targeted govemment neves ud push adoption sooner. We expect that the medium-duty short-hau truck and urban bus markets are close to BEV feasibiity aready. and that deci n at os would open puban delivery short-haul ass B, and onger range mum- uk At the same tme ong-hau rus and some off-highway applicats(. mnt ucks ave sia weht and poad constraints that make BEV ess feasble even at ower battery costs-but could be good candidates for fuel els Our TAM anaysis smng ba anal production growth and batter fu ll deines along the cost curve, points to a 2030 global commercial vehicle TAM (exuding vans/pickups)for BEV of S4bn and a fue ce TAM of 329bn LCV market(ass 2-3)kely to p ear y L Vs an in patcua urban devery vans.

are among the best su ted to a wth to B. w shoe route and mited load factor constraints a sma er battery pack(100-125 h)omed with sod vehicle utilization provdes, by our estimates a compeling- year payback. even at todays battery prices Medium-duty(class 2-3)next, but for shorter hauls. Short-range applications of medium trucks eman compelling candidates for BEVS, particulary those with high utization and short trips(urban delivery.

Near term we st see CE and ICE variants remain the prem powertrain for mid-and iong-range hau Though a long-tem potential, we pect medium-duty trucks to see more Bav applications gaining adoption assuming battery pces can fall at or around $75/kwh Long-dlstance Class 8 best fit for fuel cells, Long haul is overwhelmingly seen as the last use case to electrify in terms of TCO and even with our assumption that battery and electrity prices will reduce b-50 n the future fu cell may remain the winning zero emissions powertrain for long-haul class 8 and certan off-highway