We have compiled questions for management teams ahead of the summerconference circuit, which ramps up this week and continues through the UPSInvestor Day in early June. Railroad M&A has stayed in the headlines, but weremain restricted and are focused elsewhere this conference season. Specifically,we expect a more frequent debate over when the truckload rate cycle hits a peak.Several management teams have already weighed in and forecasted that spot rateswill stay above contract for the rest of the year. Just about anything seemspossible in this freight market, but in our view running spot > contract for ~17months straight would require a material amount of annual RFPs shifting toshorter terms. Contracts typically reset each year, which is the primary reason spotrates historically stay above contract for only 12-13 months during tight freightmarkets. We outlined the “stronger for longer” versus “it’s not different this time”debate in our recent 1Q21 review (details here) along with the latest trends inChase Card data, which has shifted a bit toward services and discretionaryspending. Recent improvements in West Coast port fluidity will also add capacityand factor into the peak rate debate. Autonomous trucks have gained moreattention recently, which will factor into Q&A with “conventional” freightmanagement teams but are not likely to be a focal point of any presentation. ESGwill remain an increasingly common theme and discussion topic, especially if itcan be tied to truckload conversion or other end market opportunities. Included inthis note are specific questions categorized by topic and broad themes relevant foreach of the groups in transports; see page two for a list of covered companies.
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