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IMF-感觉富裕,感觉贫穷:欧洲住房财富效应与消费(英)-2023.12

# 欧洲 # 住房 # 消费 大小:0.69M | 页数:16 | 上架时间:2023-12-13 | 语言:英文

IMF-感觉富裕,感觉贫穷:欧洲住房财富效应与消费(英)-2023.12.pdf

IMF-感觉富裕,感觉贫穷:欧洲住房财富效应与消费(英)-2023.12.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 李琳琳

撰写机构: IMF

出版日期: 2023-12-13

摘要:

Households across Europe are struggling with a double crisis—the worst inflation shock since the World War II and a sudden correction in house prices. There is a rich literature on how housing price cycles affect consumer spending, finding mixed results with a wide range of consumption responses to changes in housing wealth. In this paper, using quarterly data on 20 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2023, we analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation￾adjusted housing wealth and consumer spending and obtain statistically significant and economically intuitive results. Household consumption responds positively and swiftly to changes in real house prices and gross disposable income as expected. Using the estimated coefficients, we can deduce that the average quarter-on-quarter decline of -1.96 percent in real house prices in the first quarter of 2023 in Europe could dampen consumer spending by about -0.51 percentage points in real terms on a cumulative basis over a horizon of eight quarters.

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