We are entering a season of bond supply announcements in Asia, with India, Thailand and Malaysia all due to release funding estimates or calendars in the coming month or two. In India, we favour paying INR5yr NDOIS, considering the possible front-loading of the 2H FY22 Gsec borrowing calendar as well as the uncertainty surrounding the necessity and size of a third round of government securities acquisition programme for Q4. The RBI could also unveil further steps to normalise liquidity conditions at the next MPC meeting on 8 October. For Thailand, we have already pared our trade idea back in August and still see no strong reason to extend duration until we get clarity on FY22 funding needs. Funding concerns have picked up very recently in Malaysia due to the upcoming expansion of the COVID-19 fund but we think fears are somewhat exaggerated and still favour the 10yr MGS. 

Considering the supply anticipation in the abovementioned markets, bonds in mainland China, Indonesia and South Korea should perform relatively better due to fewer headline risks. While the issuance pipeline in mainland China is still heavy for the rest of the year, it is within expectations. Moreover, well-anchored funding rates and decelerating growth should allow bonds to be absorbed smoothly. For Indonesia, funding progress is the best in Asia, with the possibility that auctions could be cancelled in December. We favour buying 30yr CGB and 20yr IndoGB. Meanwhile, in Singapore, the recent flurry of government and statutory board bond issuance has led to the underperformance of SGD rates. We think the worst phase for investor sentiment is over, and we favour positioning for a flattening of the long-end of the curve.