国际投行报告-亚太地区金属及采矿业-大部分预测：条件很差，这是乐观的-2021.11.1-46页

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国际投行报告-亚太地区金属及采矿业-大部分预测：条件很差，这是乐观的-2021.11.1-46页.pdf

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国际投行报告-亚太地区金属及采矿业-大部分预测：条件很差，这是乐观的-2021.11.1-46页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: YXM-187

出版日期: 2021-11-01

摘要：

Economic conditions in China’s basic material sector look so poor right now, it makes us positive on the outlook for iron ore and coking coal in 2022. Beijing seems willing to allow the property crisis to drag on, possibly because the year’s GDP target of + 6% looks a certainty after the strong 1H. But next year is a different matter.

China probably needs GDP growth of +5% every year to meet the five year plan of reaching high income status by 2025. With over 40% of China’s GDP driven by investment, China may need solid infrastructure stimulus in 2022 to offset a likely gap in real estate investment. That should be positive for steel from 2Q-22, and iron ore & coking coal.

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