 Supply constraints may ease faster than expected as end demand falls for PCs/servers and on slower chiplet adoption  Our average FY23e EPS is 19% lower than consensus due to less favourable product mix, prices, and margins  Initiate on three leading Taiwanese ABF substrate makers: Unimicron and Kinsus at Hold, and Nanya PCB at Reduce We do not expect ABF substrate to be bullet proof from weaker end demand In the niche industry of integrated circuit substrate – which connects chips to a printed circuit board – it is ABF substrate where investors have been most positive on driven by a belief of an ongoing supply shortage to FY24-25. While we agree on the subsector being a long-term structural story as ABF substrate is required to build more powerful chips, especially for servers, we do not believe that the sector can stay totally immune to weakening demand for PCs and graphic processing units (GPUs). Demand currently far outweighs supply but this gap should shrink and cause a less favourable product mix and hurt gross margins more than the market expects.