1、We stay short 30y USTs and stay long 20s on 10s20s30s fly. We maintain short 50/50 30y UST/Gilts vs. long 30y Bunds. We maintain long 10y BTPs vs. short 10y Bunds, long 50/50 10y OAT/BTP vs. short 10y SPG, long 10y Netherlands vs. short 10y Bunds, long 30y Bunds vs. short 30y Gilts hedged with a Feb 2021 MPC OIS receiver. We enter JGB 30s40s flattener on tactical basis. We maintain long 20y JGB vs pay 2y swap, long 10y JGB USD denominated.

2、We stay tactically neutral on the USD as election uncertainty remains high. We run some statistics for G10 FX going into the US election. A downside surprise in Eurozone inflation keeps EUR/USD rangebound for now. We see upside risks to GBP/USD. We are neutral USD/JPY, but see value for long cross JPY on dips. We suggest short 3m USD/JPY strangle.

3、We continue to suggest staying long 5y breakevens given (1) low expectation for fiscal stimulus, (2) higher possibility for a Democratic sweep, which would likely increase yields, (3) our expectations for continued CPI strength and supportive valuations.

4、We present different scenarios for stimulus ahead of Election Day and how that influences projected T-bill issuance. Under our base case of no stimulus before Election Day, we expect modest T-bill paydowns in 4Q20. However, if a $2tn deal were passed, we would expect $870bn in T-bill issuance in 4Q20.

5、In G10 rates, trends are still mixed and weak, with short-term bearish trends forming in USTs, Gilts vs. a bullish trend in Bunds. In G10 FX, shortterm trends mixed, while medium-term trends favor USD lower vs. EUR, JPY; EUR higher vs. CHF.