Global Macro Strategy We flag a decline in US CEO confidence as a harbinger of layoffs. We believe the market is underpricing the impact on CNY from the tariff cut and recommend long EUR/CNH put spread. We discuss liquidity and market functioning in the JGB market after the BoJ's purchasing spree. Interest Rate Strategy In the US, we maintain our short the March FOMC meeting via the FFJ3 contract and UST 1s10s flatteners. In Europe, we close the July ECB meeting receiving trade. We keep our short duration trades (EUR 10y10y and long EUR 5y5y inflation swap)hedged with August Bund 150/152/153 broken call fly. We enter 30s40s OAT RV flatteners and keep our ASW and non-core EGB trades. In the UK, we maintain our tactically bullish stance best expressed through long positions in 10y real rates. At the same time, we have introduced a long 5y RPI idea given the cheapness of front- end inflation. In Japan, we remain in JGB 10s20s steepeners and long JBU2. We shift from 1y1y vs. 10y10y on TONA OIS to 1y1y vs. 10s20s steepener