Infection resurgence risks are flashing, as new infection cases rose 4% w/w, to a record ~350k per day (vs. 228k/254k/283k in Jul/Aug/Sep). A diminished mortality rate (2.8% vs. peak: 7.2%) and vaccine/treatment progress are mitigations. Reconciling to the curve’s persisting beyond year-end, we present potential 2021 scenarios. Noting further progress in vaccine/treatment (link), we highlight: (1) the mortality rate could decline below 2% by 1H21E; (2) infections could be less clustered, sporadic and perhaps smaller-scale in third/fourth waves; (3) lockdowns may decline as a primary response in 2021 due to their economic burden, rising public stress on social distancing, and fiscal budget limitations. We argue that public health strategy should shift from “infection control” to “patient treatment.” Finally, we update efficacy on antiviral drugs, including remdesivir.

Picturing 2021. Infections: We expect a series of waves rippling globally/in Asia. The infection curve could be milder and smaller after winter passes, factoring in a faster recovery, smaller susceptibility and a faster public response. Mortality: We forecast a mortality rate (= death/infections) decline below 2% by end-1H21 (vs. current: 2.8%). Curve control: We do not foresee lockdowns as a key public health strategy beyond 2020. Managing R0 ≤1, rather than full suppression, could become a primary focus. Testing: We expect schools and offices to remain open in 2021. Regular testing is likely to be widely implemented as test results become available faster (link). Tracing: Appbased susceptible control leveraging technology is likely to be widely adopted (vs. limited adoption in 2020). Border control: While we expect gradual border re-opening, quarantines (7-14 days) and daily flight quota controls at airports will continue in 2021.

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