More than 2,850 investors and policymakers from around the world registered to participate in our virtual Investor Seminar at the time of the virtual International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2020 Annual Meetings on October 14-16. The virtual Investor Seminar featured 14 sessions with an exceptional array of expert economic, political, and market analysis from both developed markets and emerging markets. The key highlights from our panel discussions were:

Official creditors made it clear that it is too early to overcome the human counterparty risk that COVID-19 has unleashed, and the IMF/World Bank 2020 Annual Meetings will be remembered for the official calls for even greater fiscal support, with tacit admission that monetary policy is reaching its limits. Investors expect an extension of current emergency facilities and asset purchases rather than greater use of negative rates as a policy tool.

Broad expectations of a Biden win and a vaccine by end-2021 set up a constructive view on risk going into 2021, but with room for disappointment if these assumptions do not materialize.

After an unprecedented synchronized downturn in 2Q followed by a similarly synchronized rebound in 3Q, the global economy is now headed into a differentiated stage of the recovery.

Monetary policy and emergency facilities have provided market stability but will not bring back growth, and the future growth model remains unclear, with EM countries faring worse than advanced economies.

Inequities will continue to rise in DM and EM economies. This crisis will leave a legacy of scars as labor markets take time to heal, investment is held back by uncertainty and balance sheet problems, and lost schooling impairs human capital.

There are practical obstacles to developing an effective vaccine for COVID-19 that is widely available, and speakers caution that development and administration of a vaccine is a multi-year proposition.