The expected successful vaccines roll-out has raised growth expectations for the next two years. Central banks are in Maintenance Monetary Policy (MMP) mode. They have implemented implicit Yield Curve Control (YCC) and have vowed to react to realised inflation rather than expected growth.  As a result, rates are likely to lag other asset classes and the data. n However, given the 100bp valuation gap, the risks are asymmetric towards rates partially catching up to the data and reflation proxies. We expect UST10Y to end the year around 125bp. As Bunds are expensive to USTs, they should not outperform in this mild sell-off. We therefore see 10Y Bund ending the year around -20bp. n Upside risks to yields would come from (1) a Democratic sweep in the January Senate run-off elections, (2) an earlier-than-expected pick-up in inflation and (3) a more flexible implicit YCC from central banks. n Downside risks to yields would come from (1) a failure of the vaccines, (2) significant fiscal tightening in the US, (3) credit tightening in China and (4) a stricter implicit YCC from central banks.