Ahead of next week’s major healthcare conference (as with everything virtually this year), we have put together a comprehensive list of what to expect for each company that we over cover that will be presenting. We have also included a comprehensive list of questions for company management.
Amgen – Amgen typically does not present anything substantially new at JPM, but expect broader discussion on the Sotorasib program (and upcoming data presentation at World Lung of the phase 2 NSCLC data). We also expect commentary around the strategic positioning of tezepelumab. Beyond the pipeline we could get some color on the commercial business, including biosimilars, the impact of bundled payments for dialysis, and potential Covid-19 recovery.
Gilead – Following an active 2020 in terms of BD, we expect much of the discussion on the execution plans for the emerging oncology franchise, including filing plans for magrolimab in high-risk MDS and Trodelvy’s commercial progress. We could also get further updates on the business recovery of the HCV and cell therapy businesses, with commentary on HIV.
Vertex – The company has typically used JPM to deliver an update on overall strategy—which now includes thoughts on Business Development, given pipeline concerns emerging with the October 2020 discontinuation of VX-814 in AAT. We do not expect any 4Q/FY20 pre-announcement, but could get incremental color on the late December 2020 sNDA approvals expanding eligible patients for Trikafta, Symdeko, and Kalydeco.
Biogen – We expect investor focus will be on aducanumab, but do not expect any substantial updates (as the company typically shies away from discussing ongoing regulatory interactions.) Biogen has typically used JPM to provide an update on strategy, and we may get additional color on the SAGE collaboration and earlier neuroscience pipeline.
Regeneron – 4Q/FY20 Eylea Preannouncement Expected. The company is likely to pre-announce 4Q and FY20 US Eylea sales (we estimate $1.38M/$4.99B vs. consensus forecasts of ~$1.31B/~$4.93B) and provide some 2021 financial guidance, which could include: R&D, SG&A, COGS, cost of contract manufacturing, other operating income/expense, CapEx, and effective tax rate (these are the current metrics provided by the company; thus some/all/ or none may be provided). We may get R&D/ program updates for the emerging novel oncology portfolio, which we believe is becoming an increasingly important driver for the company. The company could also provide color on Covid-19 Ab program and qualitative expectations into 2021.
Neurocrine – 4Q/FY20 Preannouncement expected Sunday, January 10. Given past precedence, the company is likely to pre-announce 4Q and FY20 Ingrezza sales and TRx data ahead of the conference - consensus estimates ~$254M/~$1,008M (vs. our estimate of $245M/$998M). We do not expect the company to issue guidance, but could provide additional color on the underlying dynamics of the Ingrezza market. Beyond Ingrezza, we could get incremental color on the pipeline, including more details on the clinical trial hold of NBIb-1817/ RESTORE-1 trial.
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