Our current-quarter growth forecasts continued their steady slide this week, with downgrades lowering US and global GDP projections to a 5%ar. Growth is still robust, but the 4%-pts ar markdown of 3Q since mid-May underscores the materi-al headwinds that have built in recent months. The momentum loss is concentrat-ed in consumer spending, which we expected to be boosted in 2H21 by rising vaccinations and mobility. Weakness in retail spending has been pronounced with volumes down 2%ar in the three months through July and tracking another slide in August. Some plateauing in the torrid goods sector recovery was anticipated, but the recent slowdown was not. Of equal concern are signs that the rotation in consumer demand toward travel, entertainment, and other services as vaccinations unleashed pent-up demand appears to have stalled with our global services PMI stepping down and US service-sector indicators softening. In all, our forecast for annualized current-quarter consumption growth has been lowered roughly 3%-pts over the last three months. With the latest news suggesting that industrial output gains are aligned with our expectations for a solid quarterly increase, the composi-tion of current-quarter growth looks to have deteriorated with inventory building accounting for a greater than expected share of growth (Figure 1).