 Demand: Near-term demand is being boosted by ~0.5mbd from fuel switching.Despite ongoing uncertainty over COVID-19 case numbers, the underlyingdemand recovery is also strong. We now expect 2022 demand to be fully back to2019 levels, before jet demand is anywhere near back to normal again.

 US supply growth is resuming, but its price elasticity is lower than we had expected. Activity is being hampered by manpower constraints, while spendingbeyond the private producers remains tightly reined in. Nevertheless, we couldstill see 1mbd of US supply growth in 2022. Conventional non-OPEC supplyshould just about recover to 2019 levels, but the outlook beyond 2022-23 is oneof gradual decline, pointing to the need for a steady rise in OPEC supply.