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国际投行报告-亚太地区房地产行业-印尼房地产:大宗商品超级周期过后,房地产会出现繁荣吗-2021.11.16-33页

# 投行报告 # 房地产行业 # 印尼房地产 大小:1.33M | 页数:33 | 上架时间:2021-11-26 | 语言:英文

国际投行报告-亚太地区房地产行业-印尼房地产:大宗商品超级周期过后,房地产会出现繁荣吗-2021.11.16-33页.pdf

国际投行报告-亚太地区房地产行业-印尼房地产:大宗商品超级周期过后,房地产会出现繁荣吗-2021.11.16-33页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: YXM-187

出版日期: 2021-11-16

摘要:

We stay positive on the Indonesia property sector as we think the overall backdrop remains supportive for further strong momentum in 2022. Marketing sales have been well above market expectations with 9M21 figures up 39% YoY among the top four developers (BSDE, CTRA, PWON, SMRA), exceeding pre-COVID levels. We believe a property upcycle remains in sight in 2022 supported by: 1) record low mortgage rates; JPM expects BI rate to remain flat at 3.5% throughout 9M22; 2) extension of government stimulus until Dec-22 (0% down payment, mortgage disbursement); and 3) undemanding valuation with blended sector discount to NAV at 47%, vs 10yr mean of a 37% discount. We also believe the recent surge in commodity prices will trickle down to a property market upcycle as consumer purchasing power picks up, as evident from the previous 2009-11 commodity upcycle followed by the 2012-15 property boom. We raise our price targets and reiterate OW ratings on all four names under coverage with our pecking order as follows: PWON > SMRA > CTRA > BSDE.

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